“Good business leaders create a vision, articulate the vision, passionately own the vision, and relentlessly drive it to completion.” – Jack Welch
This extremely well researched infographic dimensionalizes a lot of emerging tech to help you size your big bets. I so thoroughly loved this I spent an hour on it – by accident. However, I learned so much I forgave its uber-talented author. Michell Zappa focuses on delivering a real perspective of technology across a 40-year horizon for eleven categories and three key dimensions: importance, consumer impact and clustering.
The categories are: artificial intelligence, internet, interfaces, sensors, ubicomp (or ubiquitous computing), robotics, biotech, materials, energy, space and geotech. This is a dramatically different view than, for instance, the Gartner Hype Cycle with which it shares a few overlapping points. Whereas Gartner places augmented reality in 5-10 year time frame as a high-level category, Envisioningtech.com places it in 2016 (same timeframe) – but shows a moderately sized impact on the consumer (without needing to dig into detail). Gartner gives you a different viewpoint of to the speed with which technologies are expected to come on in terms of adoption, where the Envisioningtech approach gives you a magnitude missing from Gartner. Envisioningtech also covers non-commercial pieces that are important such as Cyberwarfare expected to hit in fulmination in 2014. (And I am sure more than a few people will be totally alarmed by its close proximity to cloud computing – expected to pop this year, as noted by other pundits, including Andrew McAfee).
Among my favorite predictions is the 2016 commercial availability of Boards – namely those interactive displays that exist but aren’t for general (meaning non-military and very high-tech) consumption. Augmented reality becomes practical reality in 2017. That’s a full 2 years after 3D TVs are prevalent and 3 years after gesture recognition we talked about yesterday with Kinect goes mainstream.
You won’t agree with everything. Currently available instances of countries attacking other countries in cyberspace already exist. Devices already use some AR applications. Predicting technology is always a plus or minus game – if you hit the date exactly, you were likely on the inside and very near to launch (and still praying hard for adoption and or continued financing). However, it does offer a helpful frame of reference for discussion.
Enjoy, and while you can PDF it, you lose all the rich content you get using the online version.